Unexpected Q1 Decline in Bookings and Billings Offset by Multi-Year High in Distributor Optimism for Q2
The Solomon Coyle 2026-Q1 to Q2 Dealer Market Outlook Report is now available, which provides a quarterly snapshot of business conditions and future expectations in the commercial furniture industry. The latest findings reveal a quarter shaped by macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, resulting in an unanticipated drop in bookings, a sharp decline in billings, and a shift of volume to later in the year, alongside a remarkable and unprecedented level of distributor optimism heading into Q2.
A number of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors may have contributed to an unanticipated drop in bookings, a sharp decline in billings, and a shift of volume to later in the year. The result was a tough Q1 but a remarkable level of optimism for the near future:
• When asked three months ago about Q1 bookings, dealers had predicted 2.7% growth. The 0.7% decline subsequently reported is tempered by a sharply higher outlook for Q2, where anticipated growth has increased from 2.3% to 7.5%.
• Dealers reported a noteworthy decline of 5% in billings for Q1 with backlogs growing by 3.5%. We have observed similar Q1 billings drop-offs in the past, which are usually followed by an uptick in Q2.
• The portion of dealers seeing growth in their pipelines is larger than at any point in the seven-year history of this survey. Overall, almost 69% of respondents say pipelines increased with only 12.6% reporting a decline. The product category and business sector breakdowns show a more mixed result, but pipelines were strongest where it counts the most – furniture – with over 92% of respondents seeing pipelines growing or holding steady.
“This quarter’s survey results are as mixed as the recent labor, consumer confidence, and inflationary signals have been. While there was an unexpected decline in bookings and billings in Q1, distributor optimism for Q2 is at a multi-year high. This may indicate that anticipated Q1 volume was delayed, not missing. We’ll have answers in three months.” — John Joseph, Director of Business Analytics & Technology, Solomon Coyle
Distributors from across North America contributed to the quarterly Market Outlook survey, providing forward-looking data on bookings, billings, backlog, and pipeline activity. The report draws on input from 233 responses from 177 unique distributor branches in the U.S. and Canada, and is intended to support better planning and decision-making through timely, peer-informed insight.
To view the current report, visit: www.solomoncoyle.com/dealer-market-outlook-report/.
For inquiries regarding participation, email support@solomoncoyle.com.