Our industry is facing a crisis. The built environment business has weathered plenty of disruption before, but whatâs different this time is that itâs not just one disruption, itâs several, all arriving at once.
Technology is reshaping our work. Clients are asking for more and willing to pay for less. Project timelines are constantly being condensed. Maintenance costs are becoming more challenging. Your team is facing new challenges and instabilities, from tough economics to climate change.
Thatâs why most people and companies I know are trying to figure out whatâs next right now. Theyâre focusing all their energy on the next fiscal cycle, the next project pipeline, the next hire, and even the next job. Unfortunately, that kind of thinking leaves you constantly playing catch-up, instead of looking ahead and asking, what do I want to be prepared for, and what do I want to create, in the next 10 to 20 years?
This isnât a criticism. Itâs just a fact. And thereâs a reason for it: Thinking about the future is physically challenging. It feels strange, literally. Thereâs real neuroscience behind it. Our brains are wired to treat our future selves as a stranger, almost the same way that you donât know the person sitting next to you on a bus or a plane.
Thatâs why long-range planning keeps losing out to short-range urgency. Your brain doesnât feel invested in the version of you or your organization thatâs 10 years out as much as it does in the version of you next year.
Which is why we need foresight, and why the International Interior Design Association (IIDA) created IIDA Futures. Our data-driven foresight practice was built to help companies across the built environment strategically prepare for the future. That includes everything from meeting evolving client expectations, to weathering rising costs due to supply chain issues, to successfully attracting and working with Gen Z and future generations of design professionals.
Before we dive into how IIDA Futures helps, letâs cover some basics. For those who arenât familiar, foresight is a rigorous, evidence-based methodology that helps us model whatâs possible in the future. In fact, foresight findings lay the groundwork for making more effective strategy decisions. According to the World Economic Forum, 34% of the largest companies in America and Europe have entire business units dedicated to strategic foresight, which helps businesses anticipate future changes to make better decisions right now.
For anyone looking to address uncertainty about the future, foresight is your tool, and not because itâs about getting the future right, because nobody does that reliably. (And if thereâs a person, technology or platform thatâs claiming they can predict whatâs next, theyâre probably selling you a pot of gold at the end of a nonexistent rainbow). Itâs because foresight is about taking a clear-eyed, intentional look at potential futures, and using that to address uncertainties. It helps you make decisions about what you want to create next, long before youâre forced to react to whatâs right in front of you. [Text Wrapping Break][Text Wrapping Break]Thatâs why IIDA Futures built its first major foresight tool: The Futures Readiness Index, to help you with the decisions and uncertainties in front of us.
The Index is built on more than 1,000 distinct data points and hundreds of trends across nine different industries. It distills global data into insights that give you a clear picture of whatâs happening right now and whatâs coming next. Those findings are translated into the types of decisions that designers, firm leaders, manufacturers, operators, sales teams and other professionals in the built environment will need to make in the next 10 years to stay relevant. To help with this, weâve included 25 major trends, seven potential futures and tactics to prepare for them, and more than 40 new skills that you could start building now to differentiate yourself.
To demonstrate this, I want to share two key findings from the Index, framed as questions companies will have to answer, and decisions you will need to make.
One: Are you ready for outcomes to matter more than the final design?
I want to be clear, Iâm not saying that in design, aesthetics wonât matter. Beauty still matters; craft still matters. But everyone wants more proof of the return on investment. And that pressure is showing up across all industries, not just design.
That word, âproof,â is at the foundation of this, because weâre starting to see that in the buying process, particularly retail, most people make purchases based on evidence. In one survey, 87% of people said proof changed how they buy. They only purchase whatâs proven to deliver, rather than whatâs just promised. In the built environment industry, clients are moving from utilization data, or how much a space gets used, to wanting proof that the space actually creates focus, well-being, and retention. Thatâs a much higher bar, and itâs a fundamentally different kind of deliverable than just a finished product.
Weâre starting to see an uptick in outcomes-based contracting. Hereâs an example. Siemens partnered with a municipality in Norway for 38 buildings, and as part of the contract, they guaranteed energy savings. If those energy savings werenât met, then Siemens was on the hook. But if it performed better, they got paid more. In the built environment, weâve struggled because there is a data problem. Itâs much more difficult to measure and prove that a human outcome, like well-being, has been achieved. However, there are new technologies emerging that can measure intended outcomes in non-invasive ways.
So, the decisions companies will have to make include what exact outcomes you expect to be paid for in the future, and what you want to be known for enabling.
Two: Are you ready for repair to reshape furniture expectations?
Repair and reuse are moving from a sustainability-only concern to a default expectation, and thatâs already starting to create new types of spaces and use cases. One example is repair cafes, a global network of more than 2,000 workshops where people bring broken things to be fixed. Much of this is focused on sustainability, but the emphasis on sustainable products is going to increase because of forthcoming laws. Every single continent has a proposed âRight to Repairâ law, which is going to affect the products that are created. In fact, in the European Union, these laws are in the works in 27 countries. This is going to accelerate consumersâ desire for the right and ability to repair, which is influencing emerging technologies. There are many new patents and studies that are looking at something called âdebonding on demand,â which makes it easier to take things apart without heat, light or even a screwdriver.
Weâre also seeing an increase in reuse, and the expectation that materials will have many lives. In 2022, Australia created its first upcycled skyscraper. The building retained more than two-thirds of the old structure, including beams and columns, as well as 95% of the buildingâs original core. The team behind it even reused materials like glass, screws, and drywall to build something new.
In the near future, you may have to provide drawings and plans for the disassembly, repair and reuse of your designs. Today, youâre paid to complete a project. Tomorrow, you could be paid to keep reinventing that same project as a living design over years. Youâll have to decide now how to ensure your designs have staying power across decades.
If youâre looking to move past todayâs uncertainties and get more insights on the decisions youâll be expected to make in the future like those two examples, explore the full IIDA Futures Readiness Index, and watch our recent webinar, which gives more context about several key findings. More than a report, the Index is a comprehensive tool for reflection, learning and most importantly, action. The future is coming, whether youâre ready or not. Make sure you meet it confidently.
Editorâs Note: Mark Bryan, IIDA, is the chief research and strategy officer at IIDA. Previously, he was a global foresight consultant, leading the built environment, manufacturing, and consumer product group sectors. Bryan has worked as a strategist, designer, design researcher and futurist for clients across the country.