Last week, the International Interior Design Association (IIDA) released the report chronicling its 2017 IIDA Industry Roundtable. This year’s theme, “Design Then, Design Now, Design Next,” marked the event’s 20th anniversary and framed a focus on the future.
While some areas of discussion were in line with topics already heavily covered in the news (yes, they talked about Millennials), we’re using this space to highlight in reprinted form the areas we found to be the most of-the-moment and future-forward.
The Future is Now
“Designers are hired to build the future: an office slated for habitation in six months, a new corporate campus that will take years to complete,” noted the roundtable report. “Given the length of time required to plan and construct a space from the ground up, designers must anticipate what the world will be like when those spaces come online, and beyond. For a workplace, that means accounting for emerging technologies and equipment, new ways of working, how the corporate culture and labor force might evolve, and more. Clients need and expect us to stay two steps ahead of the curve.
Speaker Jim Young proposed a few options for industry members to educate themselves about what’s ahead: “Going to conferences such as Realcomm and SHRM, attending CES and other electronics trade shows, inviting tech companies to our offices to present leading-edge prototypes, and scrutinizing media coverage devoted to scientific and technological advancements. Even checking out the DARPA Twitter feed can provide some futurist perspective.” The roundtable report also outlined a set of innovations to be aware of:
>3D Printing. “The technology promises to speed up construction, enable greater customization and on-site adjustments, and will likely transform labor. There have already been landmark developments in the workplace arena: The world’s first 3D-printed office, designed by Gensler, was completed in Dubai last year.”
>Autonomous vehicles. Clients are “already accommodating the driverless car trend by eliminating or scaling back on-site parking and rethinking the curbside-to-front entry arrival sequence.” ‘I’m not sure how far off in the future [the broad adoption of self-driving cars] is,” said Jim Young, “but it’s likely unavoidable.’”
>Virtual concierge services. “This already ubiquitous technology is starting to infiltrate work environments, though it’s been slow to catch on. Jones also foresees broad applicability: ‘What if you were greeted [at the office every day] by a digital personal assistant? How would your workplace change to accommodate this technology?’”
>Wearables. “Nanotechnology and wearables will change how and when patients interface with doctors, as well as the design of their offices. ‘Fast forward three years: real-time monitoring – through sensored shorts, socks, shoes, bras – will be better [at diagnosing illnesses] than your own doctor,’ said Young. Clunky diagnostic equipment in healthcare environments will be a thing of the past. Far from obviating the need to see a doctor, wearables could enable a best-of-both-worlds scenario, combining the social benefits of a face-to-face visit and the boon of real-time data gathering. ‘Wearables can do the information gathering, allowing doctors to spend more time actually speaking to patients,’ said Durst. ‘The social piece of medicine remains critical.’ And irreplaceable.”
>Virtual & augmented reality. “A combination of the two technologies is transforming how design concepts and schemes are presented to clients – to say nothing of the initial real estate hunt. Young noted that CBRE contracted with Google Earth to create immersive environments that obviate the need for office-hunters to tour every space they’re considering, saving time by honing down the list. Durst noted that IIDA found its new headquarters this way: ‘I used VR glasses to eliminate about 10 spaces.’”
>Telepresence. “This genre of immersive virtual-reality-based technologies, with the aid of robots, helps create the feeling of being elsewhere – allowing people to attend off-site meetings and such ‘in person.’ It’s like Skype or videoconferencing on speed. ‘Is the technology ready [for widespread adoption]? No,’ said Young. ‘But should you be partnering with these companies so that, when it is ready, you can share with your most innovative client? Yes.’ Offices could incorporate telemedicine portals, for instance, or enable virtual attendance at conferences. The technology’s most notorious proponent is political exile Edward Snowden, who makes frequent “appearances” in the U.S. via bot.”
>The diaspora of retail. “Online and virtual shopping are already affecting high end bricks-and-mortar retail, which is in danger of extinction. ‘Combine virtual shopping and 3D printing, and you’re gonna go to zero inventory,’ said Young. Durst foresees a future where shopping portals are an amenity incorporated into the workspace. ‘A Guardian survey indicates that 30 percent of shopping happens at night – and 60 percent between the hours of 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. That means most people are shopping at work! So do you fight that, or embrace it?’”
The Future is Global. But that’s complicated. Industry leaders can keep abreast of emerging technologies and innovations by traveling to cities such as Shanghai, Mumbai, and Dubai. “
“‘They take the idea of yes to another level,’ Young said. To understand best practices, we must look globally and align ourselves with what’s going on in the world. ‘Traveling to places like Seoul, where they are already living the digital lifestyle, is the best way to believe it’s going to happen here.’ (Closer to home, try Toronto: ‘In my opinion, the most innovative city in North America,’ Young said.) Why isn’t the U.S. in a leadership role when it comes to adopting emerging technologies – many of which we invented? Why aren’t we more innovative in practice? ‘Because we don’t have to be,’ Young explained.
“’Necessity is the mother of invention. In Costa Rica, in the middle of nowhere, you find solar-powered LED-lit houses that are off the grid. Because they have to be. It takes people from other parts of the world to take our technology and really use it, and make it bigger.’ Although designers can encourage clients to embrace leading-edge innovation, the majority are risk averse and want to see proof of concept; they don’t want to be guinea pigs.”
And that’s to say nothing of the impacts on innovation resulting from the recent immigration ban.
The Future of Place
“Young offered valuable insight about the intersection of real estate, space, and technology. He identified two phenomena that will have major consequences on the future of commercial real estate: 1) the continued disruption of supply chains in the face of digitization, and 2) a population boom that will strain natural and manmade resources to the brink, forcing buildings to be significantly more efficient from an energy and utilization perspective.”
“The current population explosion, the effects of which are amplified by ever-increasing life expectancy, is exponential and unprecedented. ‘After being relatively flat for thousands of years, population growth since 1800 has been a straight upward shot, from one to seven billion,’ said Young. ‘We need 10 planets to live the westernized lifestyle we’re accustomed to and that the rest of the world wants; we will not be able to have buildings that sit empty.’ He points to hotels, which at any hour of the day are perhaps 30% occupied, and office buildings that sit empty all night. These spaces will have to be much better utilized to support our planet’s people. ‘I always ask clients, ‘Do you really need new space? How well are you using your existing space?’ said Young.”
“Energy use is another ongoing concern. Even though buildings are unoccupied for large chunks of the day, they still have to be heated and cooled 24/7. Young has observed a stubborn resistance on the part of U.S. hotel operators even to use occupancy sensors in guest suites. ‘[Forcing the issue with your clients] would make energy efficiency a change management problem rather than a spatial problem.’ He also advises that designers push the envelope on how electricity is delivered to a space. Low-voltage infrastructure and lighting and the next generation of high-efficiency solar energy could help us unplug from the grid, or even give back to it.
“Real estate needs are also shifting in lockstep with supply chains. ‘In every historical age, we created real estate to meet particular needs: farms and barns during the agrarian age, factories during the industrial era,’ Young explained. ‘In the information age, we have bricks-and-mortar real estate being replaced by digital alternatives: from Blockbuster to Netflix, malls to Amazon. And their supply chains are being threatened, too, which will impact the kind of spaces we need to build.’ Read: less on-site inventory and a larger distributed network of warehouses.”
Man Versus Machine
“One of the most promising but existentially ominous technologies that will likely affect all industries and occupations, including our own, is artificial intelligence: the next generation of computing, where machines learn on their own, from our data.”
“Top tech companies including Microsoft and Google created the Partnership on Artificial Intelligence to Benefit People and Society, a public consortium to keep the technology in check. ‘Bill Gates, Stephen Hawking, and Warren Buffett are all on record saying that if we don’t control AI, it could destroy humanity,’ Young warned. ‘At the very least, it promises to seriously steal more jobs and potentially undermine an already fragile economy. AI can [already] replace a $350,000-year Wall Street analyst.’
“Moving forward, we need to be careful and intentional about what we choose to automate and augment and what we protect as the unique capabilities of humans.
The Human Resource
“Ware is among the pundits who are convinced that, over time, automation creates more jobs than it kills; after all, it takes people to create, implement, and reprogram the technology that we are so reliant on. But those newly created jobs are of a very different stripe, requiring a more honed and higher-level skill set: computer savvy, critical thinking, and an ability to analyze.”
“It’s much more difficult to find someone who can figure out how to adapt or modify a complex technology, someone who can be innovative,” said Julie B. Cummings. “They are jobs requiring innovation and creativity – people who can collaborate and think outside the box.” She describes this as a shift from transactional to tacit jobs, meaning that knowledge cannot be transferred so easily from one person to another.
For now, at least, creative problem solving is man’s competitive advantage over machine. ‘We have to hold onto the value of the human experience,’ said Annie Chu.
Of course, a culture that prizes creativity as the last bastion of humanism has positive implications for our own industry. ‘Design could be the most sought-after job: We can do what artificial intelligence cannot,’ said Doug Shapiro.”
Our Problems Begin and End With Education
“Mobility has sped up the pace of work, but it’s a double-edged sword: greater productivity, less thinking. Chu, a college professor, witnesses this in her students. ‘They often tell me that things are happening too fast and they don’t have time to think.’
“Indeed, the younger generation is not being taught how to think critically. This has dire implications for our industry, one that depends on a high level of creativity and innovation. It means a labor pool less equipped to problem solve – and greater competition for that smaller pool of qualified applicants.
“Silicon Valley was founded on superior math skills (plus a heady dose of science and creativity), but the future of innovation in our country may rest on a generation of students less educated than their elders. Our students are currently ranked 40th in math. What was a rigorous high school education is now the freshman year curriculum at the average state school.
“In this cultural landscape, the burden of higher education is shifting to employers. ‘Undergraduate education is now being transferred to corporations: Your advanced degree now happens where you work,’ said Durst. Dream of becoming an expert in supply chain distribution? Get a job at Amazon. ‘Education is transforming into life-long learning,’ said Barbara Dunn. Millennials have proved eager to continue their education on the job, with such benefits providing a major draw. ‘When recruiting, we talk to candidates about how many hours we commit to continuing ed, and how they can choose what’s applicable to them,’ said Cummings. But in today’s world, the most critical skill to learn, she asserted, is how to teach yourself.”
“The event culminated with a challenge by workplace futurist Jim Ware, who encouraged industry leaders to ponder a few tough questions – and let their answers guide the future of the profession.”
>How and when will the commercial interior design industry experience disruption?
>How can we be more intentional about creating the future?
>How can we ensure that human knowledge of design practices is retained? What design processes should (and shouldn’t) we automate?
>How should we be protecting our data?
The questions provided us some food for thought this week, and we hope you’ll spend some time pondering them as well.