Gensler’s 2019 Design Forecast – Cities and the Challenges They Face

Images courtesy of Gensler

One of the very first places we look to for relevant research in workplace design is Gensler, an unwavering leader in integrated architecture, design, planning and consulting. The firm weighs in on the latest trends and industry insights in its annual Design Forecast, a publication in production since 2013.

This year in its report, Gensler focuses its attention on a worthy topic – urbanization.

“This year, we recognized that we are living through the greatest period of urbanization and demographic change in world history,” said Todd Heiser, Workplace Leader – Consumer Goods, Managing Director, Gensler, in an officeinsight email interview. “In fact, by 2050 more than 70% of the earth’s population will live in cities. This increased urbanization is accelerating dramatic changes in the built environment.”

“Urban areas contribute more than 80% of global GDP, but they’re also responsible for 70% of global carbon emissions,” noted Mr. Heiser. “It is important that as urban designers, we take a leadership role in shaping the future of cities for the better.”

Gensler’s Design Forecast is lengthy, consisting of three sectors – Work, Lifestyle and Community. In the Lifestyle sector, topics include brand design; digital experience design; hospitality; mixed use & retail centers; residential; retail; and sports. In the Community sector, look forward to topics in aviation; cities & urban design; critical facilities; education, civic & culture; and health & wellness.

And in the Work sector, the firm offers insight on the following industries: consulting & real estate services; energy & sciences; financial services; foundations, associations & organizations; government & defense; intelligent places; media & consumer goods; office buildings; product development; professional services; repositioning & landlord services; and technology.

The full Gensler Design Forecastis a treasure trove of insightful, bite-size data that can provide a baseline understanding of each topic discussed.

Meritus headquarters, Beijing

Why the focus on cities? The forecast explains the magnitude of that topic:

“The world is changing. Global population shifts mean that over half the world’s people now live in cities – a total of 4.2 billion people. By 2030, there will be 43 megacities on the planet with populations of at least 10 million people in each. These concentrations of people are already introducing tough new challenges.”

“Economic volatility is perhaps the topmost concern for our clients. Markets can turn on a dime and are influenced by an increasingly unpredictable political and environmental landscape.

Climate change is on everyone’s mind, and is affecting markets, governments, and people the world over. More than 90% of all urban areas are coastal, putting most cities at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and powerful storms.

On top of this, new technologies continue to disrupt every industry in the world, introducing a massive skills gap in the talent pool. At the same time, we’re experiencing enormous demographic shifts in the global workforce. By 2025, millennials will make up 75% of all workers, bringing new expectations to the workplace and a median job tenure that’s barely two years. This kind of churn is costly, time-consuming, and fiercely competitive.”

We asked Mr. Heiser which, of all of the industries examined in the “Work” section, is the one going through the most change, and why.

“Repositioning and landlord services, especially in the United States, is seeing a lot of change in a positive way,” Mr. Heiser said. “Work isn’t just about work anymore. People want to connect to each other and other companies in creative ways. The amount of current building stock allows us to support a variety of clients in how they create immersive and human scale experiences to attract and keep their workplace tenants. The industries with the most opportunity for positive change really depends by market.”

On repositioning and landlord services, the report details:

“The large inventory of older, underutilized buildings in growing urban centers offers a huge opportunity to transform these properties into lucrative revenue generators. The Urban Land Institute estimates there is more than 500 million square feet of office space in need of significant repositioning in the U.S. alone.”

“The character and authenticity that tenants are looking for can often be found in older repositioned buildings. From turn-of-the-century to midcentury, older designs are valued. Tenants respond to memorable spaces that tell a story, that companies can leverage in their brand narrative and culture building. It’s also a more sustainable approach. It typically represents a substantial savings in capital and time, versus building new.

Multitenant office buildings serve a variety of stakeholders, but to appeal to today’s workforce, landlords need buildings that provide people with choices in how and where to work. Amenities are expected to be part of the mix, but not to escape work; tenants want amenities that can help them do their jobs better. In other words, the amenities need to be convenient, help improve well-being and performance, and add positive returns to the bottom line.

As organizations begin to think about a new generation of workers, building owners, managers, and developers have started to give underperforming properties personality makeovers. Through interventions like modified entrances, curated amenities, and pedestrian-friendly connections, inward-focused properties can be transformed into inviting places that engage tenants and connect them to each other.”

The report addresses interesting data Gensler discovered on the nuances of coworking.

“We uncovered that coworking has its limits, despite the consistent rise of coworking companies and space,” said Mr.  Heiser. “According to our latest U.S. Workplace Survey, while most people still find coworking spaces valuable, they are only using those spaces for less than one day per week, and, in fact, performance goes down if people spend more than 12 hours a week at an alternative work space. It is still important to provide more variety and choice of where to work, so as designers, we must focus on the people experience, in turn, increasing business performance.”

In its focus on urbanization, Gensler explores what it considers to be the four toughest challenges facing cities: climate change, the future of mobility, connected cities, and housing & homelessness. Heiser comments on each challenge:

“First, climate change. According to Architecture 2030, 40% of annual greenhouse gases are created by buildings. Gensler is rethinking the relationship between the built environment and water by incorporating natural defense strategies and smart building designs to make cities resilient.

Next, future of mobility. Cities have been designed for cars, not people, and with new modes of transportation, we have an opportunity to take the city streets back for people.

Third, connected cities. The growth of technology is reshaping our lives. We need to make cities more human, not less, and by deploying technology in service of people, we can become the driving force for cities that are efficient, livable and sustainable.

And, finally, housing & homelessness. Overpopulation in cities is increasing the poor and homeless population. Gensler identified an opportunity to create supportive housing for communities in need because it is important to design cities for everyone to improve the human experience.”

Gensler’s Design Forecast is a great read for those hoping to center their views and work efforts moving into 2020. Many thanks to the Gensler Research Institute for putting together a comprehensive guide touching on so many critical topics.